Diffusion, Use, and Effect of the Internet in China

China has embraced the Internet. As of December 2004, 94 million people had gone online, making China the second largest Internet-user market in the world, behind only the U.S., according to the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC), which has carried out 15 semiannual surveys of Internet users in China since 1997.¹

The growth trajectory of the country’s Internet use appears to follow the common S-curve of technology adoption seen around the world (see Figure 1). The collapse of the worldwide Internet bubble in 2000 and 2001 slowed diffusion only momentarily. The rate of growth accelerated again in 2002 and 2003, driven by a few leading applications, including online chat, online games, and the Web-based short message service (SMS).

Internet use in China could have grown even more quickly. To help put things in perspective, it is worth comparing the growth of the Internet and the growth of the mobile phone market, both of which began in China in the early 1990s. While more costly than Internet access, mobile phones have become far more popular than using the Internet. As of December 2004, the country had more than 330 million mobile phone users, or 3.5 times more than the number of Internet users, according to the Ministry of Information Industry (www.mii.gov.cn). The implication is that wireless communication networks have had a greater effect transforming Chinese society than have wired information networks. Thus, the Internet’s enormous potential remains largely unrealized but could change if the medium becomes as convenient and useful as mobile phones for Chinese users.

The evidence also suggests that the still relatively limited use of the Internet in China is not merely a function of resources. CNNIC surveys have repeatedly found that lack of computer skills is the number-one reason for not using the Internet, followed by lack of facilities, lack of time, and lack of interest. In addition, our multivariate analysis of survey data collected from Beijing and Guangzhou from 2000 to 2002 also identified a series of psychological factors, including perceived usefulness, ease of use, and popularity, that effectively differentiate users from nonusers [9]. Money is not the main barrier.

As in many other developing countries, the digital divide has been a major concern in China. Defined as the difference in Internet adoption rates across the social segments of a society, the divide in China is most noticeable along educational and age dimensions [12]. For example, at the end of 2003, nearly half (49%) of those with college educations were using the Internet, compared to only 6% of those without college educations. Likewise, 23% of the young generation (18–34 years old) were using the Internet, compared to only 9% of the middle-aged (35–49) and only 3% of senior citizens (50 and older). In addition, geographic location also contributes to the divide, with the 10 most developed provinces, mostly along the east coast, having three times more Internet users than the 10 least developed provinces inland. Discounting these factors, Internet adoption rates are similar for men and women.

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Who Does What Online?

Based on our extensive tracking research on Internet usage behavior in China, the picture is fairly clear as to who is doing what online from what location, at what time, for how long, and for what purpose. Two out of three users in China go online from home, whereas the rest have access only at their workplaces, schools, or Internet cafés, which are widely available around the country and are particularly popular among millions of young migrant workers. In December 2004, a slight majority (56%) of Chinese users still relied on telephone dialup to connect to the Internet. Broadband connections have become increasingly popular, with 37% of users having it at home and 40% having it at their workplace/school or Internet café. If Internet-adoption and access trends continue, we estimate that broadband will become the predominant method of connection at home by 2006 or sooner.

The average Chinese user spends about 13 hours per week (nearly two hours per day) online. Among users in major cities (such as Beijing in the north and Guangzhou in the south), going online has become the second most popular leisure activity, trailing only television viewing [9]. Internet use across China peaks during the evening hours (with 30%–50% of users logging on 7 p.m.–10 p.m.), conflicting with television’s prime time. Online time is not equally distributed among users; instead, it is highly concentrated among a small group of enthusiastic users. For example, in Beijing and Guangzhou, 50% of these users (light users) account for only 12% of total online time; the other 50% (heavy users) take the other 82% of online time, with the most active 10% of the user population accounting for 40% of overall activity [9].

In contrast to the distinctive pattern of management information systems found in China [5], the country’s use of the Internet is similar to that in most other countries. Since the first CNNIC survey in 1997, email has been China’s most popular online activity. The average Chinese Internet user receives five legitimate messages per week, plus eight unwanted spam messages. They send out an average of four legitimate messages per week. Other popular online activities include (in order of descending popularity): using search engines; reading online news; browsing Web pages; peer-to-peer chat (via chat rooms or instant message tools; downloading software; group discussions (via bulletin board systems or forums); playing online games; using personal contact directories; and online entertainment (such as through MP3 and Flash). It appears the Internet is used firstly as an interpersonal communication medium (email and peer-to-peer and group interaction) and secondly as an information medium (search, news, browsing) (see Figure 2). Online entertainment (games, music, movies) has become increasingly popular but is still largely confined to the younger generation and is likely to remain in distant third place for some time (see the sidebar).

The Internet is a global medium in terms of technological capability. But most Chinese users use it primarily as a domestic medium. For example, they spend over 80% of their time online on domestic Web sites and another 10% on overseas Web sites in the Chinese language. Only about 5% of their time online goes for non-Chinese overseas Web sites [9]. The locally oriented use of the Internet in China is not unique. For example, over 80% of online access in Taiwan, Japan, and Germany goes for locally produced Web sites.

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Societal Effect

As a medium used by nearly 100 million people, the Internet has doubtless brought fundamental changes to Chinese society. A case in point was the flow of information during the outbreak of SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, in 2003 [6]. For the first five months, there was little coverage of the epidemic in the mainstream media. Tens of millions of Chinese residents learned about it through phone calls, SMS messages, email, unofficial Web sites, and other channels. In Guangdong province (where the epidemic began) 40 million SMSs circulated daily. The first report the World Health Organization received from China was an anonymous email on February 20, 2003. After the central government began to publicize the crisis, online traffic at eight national news Web sites were reporting 20 million hits and 1,000 user-posted comments per day. Sales of Web-based microphones and cameras took off, as people largely stayed home, shopping, conferencing, e-learning, and peer-to-peer chatting online.

Despite ample anecdotal evidence, systematically evaluating the Internet’s effect has remained a challenge. Most studies have managed only simple comparisons of Internet users and nonusers. While users and nonusers were indeed found to be remarkably different, the differences largely evaporated in more rigorous analyses that took into account individual characteristics (such as age and education), suggesting that the differences would have existed even without the Internet. We found in our surveys of Beijing and Guangzhou (2000–2002) that Internet users spend considerably less time in face-to-face interactions with their families but more time with friends (see Figure 3). However, these differences virtually disappeared, or were statistically nonsignificant, after we accounted for such factors as differences in age, gender, education, income, and marital status [4]. More convincingly, this null relationship holds in similar studies from Hong Kong, the U.S., and other societies [7].

Similar patterns have emerged in studies of the relationship among Internet use, cultural values [11], and civic efficacy [10], though exceptions to these findings exist. In a 2004 study on the quality of life among Beijing respondents, nonusers reported being happier than their heavy-Internet-using counterparts, even after discounting sociodemographic characteristics [1]. This finding was consistent with the often-cited 1995–1996 Carnegie-Mellon HomeNet study in the U.S. [3]. However, based on a follow-up study in 1998–1999, the Carnegie-Mellon team reported that “these negative effects are no longer evident,” as “the Internet changed markedly, giving people much greater choice of contacts, activities, and information” [2].

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Conclusion

Our findings, along with those from CNNIC and other authoritative sources over the past eight years on the Internet in China are not only consistent with Internet research in most other countries, but with even earlier research on the effect of conventional mass media around the world. At the beginning of the 20th century, radio and television, along with other electronic media, were assumed by scholars, policy makers, and the general public to affect listeners and viewers instantaneously and invariantly. However, scientific research failed to prove the magic bullet power of the media, leading to the rise of limited-effects perspectives in the mid-20th century [8]. Only in the past 30 years, as media scholars looked into more subtle mechanisms (such as agenda-setting, cultivation, priming, and the spiral of silence, or how public opinion evolves from a silent majority into a true minority) over longer periods of time has the true nature of media influence begun to emerge. History seems to be repeating itself in China (and elsewhere), as research on the effect of the Internet struggles between the magic-bullet assumption of the new medium’s power and the unconvincing empirical evidence.

The millions of people in China who use the Internet are changing the way the country’s sophisticated urbanites communicate with one another and access and use information while creating appealing new entertainment options for tens of millions of young people. China’s transformation into an online society is at an early stage, being limited in terms of both numbers of people online and how the network affects their lives. Moreover, the emerging evidence suggests that Chinese users may change their attitudes toward the Internet, as well as their lives more generally, as their experience with the new medium becomes more routine and pervasive.

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