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Probability Versus Prediction in Volcanic Hazards (and Elections)


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Vesuvio landscape

How is Vesuvius like predicting the U.S. presidential election?

Credit: Antonsusi/Wikimedia Commons

Unless you've been living on the far side of the moon for the past two years, you'll know that the U.S. presidential election is next week. Now, I'm by no means going to get into politics here, but I am going to talk a little bit about the controversy regarding the analysis of polls/data to project who might win the election.

From Wired
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