Computer scientists at Johns Hopkins University have created a database that aims to predict the likelihood of cyberattacks between nations.
The Cyber Attack Predictive Index (CAPI) uses data from all national cyberattacks over the past 15 years to anticipate and predict the next national cyber conflict.
CAPI grades nations based on five common elements identified in past cyberattacks, including the strength and sophistication of the attacker's cyber force, the severity of the grievance motivating the attacker against its target, the attacker's lack of fear of serious repercussions, the consistency of an attack with the attacker's national security policy, and the degree of technological vulnerabilities within the target.
The higher the overall score, the more likely a nation is to attack.
CAPI scored 12 nation-on-nation scenarios, indicating an "extremely high likelihood" of a Russian cyberattack on Ukraine, followed by a cyberattack by the U.S. against Iran.
From Johns Hopkins University
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Abstracts Copyright © 2020 SmithBucklin, Washington, DC, USA
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