Scientists are using computer models to predict how the global COVID-19 outbreak could spread.
Efforts include one team's analysis of airplane flights and travel data to identify the 15 most at-risk cities (a list released in January); another group used the number of infected persons identified outside China to determine the actual number of cases in Wuhan city, where the disease originated, far outnumber official counts.
Researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine in the U.K. modeled the feasibility of controlling the pathogen by isolating sick individuals and tracking down each person they came into contact with; they found a high percentage of infectee contacts would need to be traced for this tactic to be effective.
From NPR Online
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