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Model Identifies High-Risk Areas for Lumpy Skin Disease in Cattle


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A cow suffering from Lumpy Skin Disease.

Researchers integrated two computer models to determine the geographies at highest risk for lumpy skin disease virus epidemics in cattle.

Credit: pirbright.ac.uk

An international team of researchers led by North Carolina State University has integrated two computer models to highlight regions at highest risk for lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) epidemics in cattle.

The combined models included a risk model to analyze spatiotemporal dynamics within affected regions, and a suitability model that studies ecological conditions in those regions, to ascertain where LSDV would most likely flourish.

The researchers segmented study areas into 20- by 20-kilometer zones, and added data for those zones on cattle populations and ecological conditions.

The model cited regions of heightened risk in Russia, Turkey, Serbia, and Bulgaria, and positively associated risk with rainfall and temperature, with wind a negative risk factor.

The models could help officials determine where to dispatch resources ahead of outbreaks, and warn cattle farmers in high-risk areas before outbreaks occur.

From NC State University News Services
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Abstracts Copyright © 2019 SmithBucklin, Washington, DC, USA


 

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