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Transistors Will Stop Shrinking in 2021, Moore's Law Roadmap Predicts


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The trajectory of transistor feature sizes could take a sharp turn in 2021.

After more than 50 years of miniaturization, the transistor could stop shrinking in just five years.

Credit: Erik Vrielink

The 2015 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) predicts the transistor could stop shrinking in only five years.

The report predicts that after 2021, it will no longer be economically feasible for companies to continue to shrink the dimensions of transistors in microprocessors.

Transistor miniaturization was still a part of the long-term forecast as recently as 2014, but three-dimensional (3D) concepts have gained momentum.

A company could continue to make transistors smaller well into the 2020s, but the industry wanted to send the message that it is now more economic to go 3D, says ITRS chair Paolo Gargini.

In the years before 3D integration is adopted, ITRS predicts leading-edge chip companies will seek to boost density by turning the transistor from a horizontal to a vertical geometry and building multiple layers of circuitry, one on top of another.

The report also predicts the traditional silicon channel will be made with alternative materials.

The changes will enable companies to pack more transistors in a given area, but keeping to the spirit of Moore's Law is another matter.

From IEEE Spectrum
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